The hottest production capacity is put in slowly,

The production capacity was put in slowly, and the oscillation pattern of aluminum market was difficult to change.

after the Russian Aluminum incident subsided, aluminum changed from the most volatile non-ferrous metal variety to the quietest variety of the market, and funds continued to flow out. In the absence of more guidance on the news, the long short game made Shanghai aluminum continue to oscillate in the short term

raw materials generally fell, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum fell.

the signing price in the domestic aluminum oxide market fell significantly last week. As of May 29, the FOB price of Australian aluminum oxide fell by $100/ton to $472/ton in a week. Domestic oxygen needs to tighten the foundation bolts of the experimental machine, and the aluminum export window is basically closed. The willingness price of domestic downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises to purchase aluminum oxide continues to decline. The price of overseas alumina has fallen by more than $200/ton from the peak of $710/ton, but compared with the production cost of about $300/ton for the tensile control experiment of non vulcanized sheets, there is still higher profit, so there is still room for overseas alumina to fall. In the case of weak external alumina prices, it is difficult for the domestic alumina market to remain strong in the short term, and it is expected to continue to decline this week

in addition, the prices of prebaked anode, aluminum fluoride and coal are all weak. In the short term, the cost of electrolytic aluminum will still move down, and the support of cost to aluminum price will weaken

according to our cost model, the operating range of aluminum price in recent years is basically in the cost area. As of May 29, the theoretical costs of low, medium and high-level aluminum tons are 13500 yuan/ton, 14200 yuan/ton and 14900 yuan/ton respectively. Under the current aluminum price, the average profit level of aluminum plants is relatively considerable, which will also put pressure on the aluminum price

slow production capacity launch and accelerated destocking in peak seasons

according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals, as of May 28, China's social inventory of aluminum ingots was 2.052 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 61000 tons last week, the largest decline in a single week since this year. The pace of inventory destocking has accelerated, and the decline has exceeded 50000 tons for two consecutive weeks

from the supply side, as of May 28, the effective capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 46.262 million tons, the operating capacity was 36.801 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.54%. The operating capacity increased by less than 1 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and decreased by nearly 1.7 million tons compared with the same period last year

recently, the Chinalco China Resources aluminum project was powered on and put into operation, and the production capacity in Guangxi was also put into operation in an orderly manner. The limited production capacity in the heating season resumed production by more than 80%. The new investment and resumed production capacity in the second quarter increased significantly compared with that in the first quarter, but it was still slow, and it was difficult to significantly reflect the output in the short term

in addition, the increase in the proportion of molten aluminum in aluminum plants has led to a decrease in outward shipments of aluminum ingots. The decrease in warehousing is also a main reason for the accelerated decline in inventory, while the outbound volume is relatively stable, and the destocking in peak seasons is expected to continue. However, with the arrival of summer, it may be difficult for consumers to support the further acceleration of destocking

conclusion

on the whole, at this stage, the cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, and the social inventory has accelerated to be removed. Under the fundamental long short game, it is estimated that 14500-15000 yuan/ton is still the main fluctuation range of aluminum price in the short term. In terms of operation, we should focus on the band operation in the range of high selling and low absorption. At the same time, we should continue to pay attention to the changes in the macro trade environment, the progress of Hydro's resumption of production, the progress of domestic compliance capacity launch, and the guidance of the implementation of self owned power plant policies on aluminum prices