The hottest production limit exceeded expectations

The production limit exceeded the expectation, and Shanghai aluminum was still strong

Abstract: the social inventory was 1.647 million tons, an increase of 63000 tons over the previous month. Downstream buyers' enthusiasm for bargain hunting has increased, the consumption of hydraulic loading system composed of hydraulic stations has gradually improved, and the rapid rise in inventory has slowed down. During the National Day holiday, the growth of social inventory was in line with expectations and did not cause market fluctuations. With the decrease of supply and the improvement of demand, the inflection point of inventory has gradually approached

since September, under the condition of empty macro, commodity prices have generally weakened, the black sector has fallen step by step, and non-ferrous metals have been under pressure as a whole. However, Shanghai aluminum

showed resistance against the backdrop of supply side reform and limited production in the heating season. The implementation of staggered peak production in some regions in advance triggered enthusiasm in the market. Shanghai aluminum once rose to 17250 yuan/ton, a new high in recent six years. Under the guidance of the news, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue the strong trend

soaring costs support aluminum prices

8. Nondestructive testing instruments (magnetic particle flaw detectors, X-ray flaw detectors γ Ray flaw detector, ultrasonic flaw detector, eddy current flaw detector, acoustic emission detector, etc.)

affected by environmental protection, domestic bauxite mining is limited. Alumina plants in Shanxi and other regions have reduced production due to tight ore supply, most of them have no inventory, and the overall market supply is tight. In addition, whether the operation of Henan @a at all speeds is stable, the limited production in the heating season in the region has been extended to the whole province, and some enterprises have entered the staggered peak production in advance, pushing up the alumina price

expectation. After the National Day holiday, the price of alumina has risen to 3585 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 40% in just two months. The prices of anode carbon, aluminum fluoride and other raw materials have also increased by more than 10% in recent months, driving the cost of electrolytic aluminum to rise significantly. At present, the average theoretical cost of China's electrolytic aluminum enterprises has exceeded 15500 yuan/ton, and the average profit per ton of aluminum has narrowed significantly from the highest of more than 2500 yuan in mid August, and some high-cost production capacity has suffered losses. The rapid rise in costs has strongly supported the bottom of aluminum prices

increase in production restriction in heating season

at present, the main illegal production capacity has been shut down, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production restriction in heating season in the later stage. In September, an official of the Ministry of Environmental Protection said that the production restriction in the heating season would not be superimposed on the illegal production capacity, and the production restriction would be based on the compliant production capacity. Henan Province has first announced that Jiaozuo Wanfang began to limit production by 30%, or 140000 tons, two months in advance in late September. Anyang City will implement peak shift production in advance from October 1, and the production of Linfeng aluminum power involved will be limited to 75000 tons. It is reported that Shanxi Zhaofeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. will also implement production restriction in advance in October, with an expected reduction of 80000 tons of production capacity. The scope and time of limited production in the heating season exceeded expectations

according to the data of Baichuan information, by the end of September, the effective capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 45.762 million tons, the operating capacity was 36.257 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.22%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, and fell below 80% for the first time this year. In September, China's primary aluminum output was 2.9683 million tons, down nearly 160000 tons from August. Illegal production capacity shutdown has been reflected in the output, and the effect of supply side reform is remarkable

the peak consumption season is approaching

with the end of local environmental protection inspectors and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, downstream users' acceptance of prices has increased, market consumption has gradually recovered, and the operating rate of processing plants has increased. According to my nonferrous statistics, the operating rate of aluminum profile enterprises in September was 60.74%, with a month on month increase of 15%. The operating rate of aluminum plate

with foil was 70.1%, up 2 percentage points month on month

inventory growth slowed down

according to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, at the end of September, China's aluminum ingot

Jinan experimental machine factory will have a sample social inventory of 1.647 million tons after conditioning, an increase of 63000 tons over the previous month. Downstream buyers' enthusiasm for bargain hunting has increased, consumption has gradually improved, and the rapid rise in inventory has slowed down. During the National Day holiday, the growth of social inventory was in line with expectations and did not cause market fluctuations. With the decrease of supply and the improvement of demand, the inflection point of inventory has gradually approached

with the departure of local environmental protection supervision teams, aluminum processing enterprises gradually resume production, and the demand for aluminum rods increases. In September, the aluminum rod warehouse continued to rise for several consecutive months and then fell from a high of 220000 tons to 185000 tons after the holiday

to sum up, the supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to decrease, the demand in the downstream peak season picks up, the inflection point of social inventory is approaching, and the weak fundamentals are gradually improving. The news of limited production in the heating season may rekindle the enthusiasm of the market at any time. Shanghai aluminum will continue the strong oscillation pattern, and is expected to stand on the 17000 yuan/ton platform again, hitting the early peak. It is expected that the main operating range of the main contract in October is 16000-17500 yuan/ton. It is suggested to participate in bargain hunting